ACADEMY AWARDS 2001
Who will take home the little gold bald guys?

By R. Scott Bolton

This year's Oscar race is the most difficult to predict in recent memory. A few short weeks ago, I would told you it was easy. GLADIATOR looked to be all but a lock for Best Picture, with veteran Oscar winner Tom Hanks looking good for Best Actor and Julia Roberts as close to a sure thing as possible for Best Actress. 

But things have changed considerably since then. After the recent SAG Awards and the DGA Awards, it seems like the beautiful and talented Ms. Roberts is the only sure thing we've got going in. As for the others ... well ....

The nominees for Best Supporting Actress are:
Judi Dench for CHOCOLAT
Marcia Gay Harden for POLLOCK
Kate Hudson for ALMOST FAMOUS
Frances McDormand for ALMOST FAMOUS
Julie Walters for BILLY ELLIOTT

Of the five nominees here, I think that Kate Hudson and Julie Walters have the edge, especially Hudson. Walters may have the veteran edge here, having long been a favorite of critics and of Oscar (she's been nominated before) but Hudson has the freshness that Oscar seems to like here (remember Marisa Tomei and MY COUSIN VINNY?). In addition, Hudson has a delightful off-screen personality that the media has really been playing to and her famous mother, Goldie Hawn, is also a renowned and respected Hollywood player. So I predict the Oscar will go to Hudson with a possibility that it will go to Walters. Walters is overdue and the film she's nominated for, BILLY ELLIOTT, didn't get the nominations it deserved.

Judi Dench and Frances McDormand are both recent winners and I think Oscar will remember that and pass them over this time. Marcia Gay Harden may have been brilliant in POLLOCK, but, unfortunately, I don't believe enough people are familiar with that film.

The nominees for Best Supporting Actor are:
Jeff Bridges for THE CONTENDER
Willem Dafoe for SHADOW OF THE VAMPIRE
Benicio Del Toro for TRAFFIC
Albert Finney for ERIN BROCKOVICH
Joaquin Phoenix for GLADIATOR

With his recent SAG Award win (as Best Actor!), I think Benicio Del Toro is the favorite here. Funny thing is, when I first saw Del Toro (in Terry Gilliam's FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS), I didn't like him at all. But Del Toro has grown as an actor at an a amazing pace, enjoying rave reviews for his performance here and in the Jack Nicholson/Sean Penn film THE PLEDGE. This is bad news for Joaquin Phoenix, who enjoyed some of last year's best reviews for his performance in GLADIATOR. Phoenix may still have enough steam to pull it off, but I think Del Toro is the frontrunner, especially with all his recent buzz.

Willem Dafoe also received a lot of Oscar buzz for his performance in SHADOW OF THE VAMPIRE but, again, not many people actually saw that film. Albert Finney was brilliant as usual in ERIN BROCKOVICH but he's always brilliant and people may have come to expect that from him and, hence, overlook him. Jeff Bridges was fine in THE CONTENDER but does he really deserve an Oscar for his performance? I'm betting most people will think not.

The nominees for Best Actress are:
Joan Allen for THE CONTENDER
Juliette Binoche for CHOCOLAT
Ellen Burstyn for REQUIEM FOR A DREAM
Laura Linney for YOU CAN COUNT ON ME
Julia Roberts for ERIN BROCKOVICH

Bet the farm on Roberts. She's won virtually every other award for her performance as the title character in ERIN BROCKOVICH and her buzz has never been stronger with her recent string of hits (yes, even THE MEXICAN) and the fact that she's the highest paid female star. If there is a sure thing at this year's Oscars, it's Julie Roberts for Best Actress.

The competition is tough: Joan Allen, many times nominated, was again outstanding in THE CONTENDER. Ellen Burstyn was absolutely mesmerizing in REQUIEM FOR A DREAM. Juliette Binoche shone in the critically-acclaimed CHOCOLAT as did Laura Linney in YOU CAN COUNT ON ME. But Roberts is the woman-of-the-hour here. I'll eat a Power Rangers videocassette if she doesn't win. (Not really. It's just a figure of speech).

The nominees for Best Actor are:
Javier Bardem for BEFORE NIGHT FALLS
Russell Crowe for GLADIATOR
Tom Hanks for CASTAWAY
Ed Harris for POLLOCK
Geoffery Rush for QUILLS

A few weeks ago, I would have bet that Tom Hanks would walk away with Oscar #3 here -and I'm still leaning toward that - but Russell Crowe is starting to look like a real possibility. Hollywood loves Hanks - he's a nice guy, he's an amazing actor, he dedicates his time to charities and to his beliefs. And, despite what you may think of CASTAWAY, his performance was stunning. Remember, he was acting opposite a plastic volleyball throughout most of the movie. Not much give and take there. Hanks is one of the few Hollywood actors who won't be affected by the "he's already got an Oscar" mentality. That was proven years ago when he won back-to-back awards for FORREST GUMP and PHILADELPHIA.

But Hanks isn't the lock that Roberts is. Russell Crowe is starting to show some spark here. During a recent Hollywood Reporter poll, they asked, "Who most deserves the Best Actor Oscar?" 48% said Crowe while 41% said Hanks. And this is from a publication read by those who actually vote for the Oscars. And, as sad as it may be, the recent reports of a possible Crowe kidnapping might even help him. As I said, I'm still leaning toward Hanks, but I wont' be surprised if Crowe's name is read from the podium that evening instead.

Another longshot, but still a possibility, is Javier Bardem from BEFORE NIGHT FALLS. Why? Bardem is a beloved and well-respected actor and a darling of other actors. And the Academy is made up mostly of actors. He could pull a surprise here, but don't bet on it. 

Ed Harris as Pollock and Geoffery Rush from QUILLS both suffer from the same problem: Both star in movies that not many have seen. I don't think you'll see either of them making an acceptance speech this year.

The nominees for Best Director are:
Stephen Daldry for BILLY ELLIOTT
Ang Lee for CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
Ridley Scott for GLADIATOR
Steven Soderbergh for TRAFFIC
Steven Soderbergh for ERIN BROCKOVICH

Sadly, Steven Soderbergh probably cancels himself out. As Rob Reiner said during the DGA Awards, if you must make two films a year, make one good film and one bad film. That way, you don't wind up competing against yourself in the Oscars. So, despite the fact that he made two excellent films this year, don't look to see Soderbergh accepting an award here. Maybe next year for his upcoming remake of OCEANS 11.

Stephen Daldry doesn't have much chance for BILLY ELLIOTT either. First, the film isn't nominated for Best Picture, and the director's award and the Best Picture award usually go hand-in-hand. (Not always, as was proven with the SAVING PRIVATE RYAN/SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE debacle). BILLY ELLIOTT was a beloved film but it probably doesn't have the strength to make a showing here.

Which brings us to Ridley Scott and Ang Lee. Prior to the DGA Awards, I would have bet that Scott had the Award in the bag. Everything about GLADIATOR screams Best Picture. Excellent production values, stunning performances, an epic story. But then the DGA Awards chose Ang Lee and the DGA Awards almost always go in tandem with the Oscar for Best Director. I'm going to guess that Ang Lee hangs onto the Best Director award for the Oscars, but I won't be surprised if Scott gets it instead. Of the two, I'd say that Lee is more deserving. GLADIATOR, as great a film as it is, is nothing more than SPARATACUS or BEN-HUR with modern CGI effects. Lee did something a little more original - he made a martial arts film that was so well-respected it earned a Best Picture nomination. No small feat. So I'll stick with Lee with a chance that Scott will take it instead.

The nominees for Best Picture are:
TRAFFIC
CHOCOLAT
CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON
ERIN BROCKOVICH
GLADIATOR

Again, sadly, TRAFFIC and ERIN BROCKOVICH probably cancel each other out since both were directed by Soderbergh. CHOCOLAT is a dark horse here but still has a small chance due to the fact that it was even nominated. 

That leaves us where we were with the directors: GLADIATOR vs. CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON.

I'm sticking with GLADIATOR.

Although CROUCHING TIGER has the more recent buzz thanks to the DGA Awards, GLADIATOR has been the favorite all along. Like BRAVEHEART before it (which, in some ways, it very much resembles), GLADIATOR is an epic, historical story with stunning production values, terrific performances and everything the Academy loves. In all likelihood, the producers of that film will go home with the Oscar. 

However, CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON also has the high production values and an epic historical story. What hinders it is a) it's a foreign language film and a foreign language film has never gone on to win Best Picture; b) regardless of how good it really is, it is still a martial arts film and has to overcome that stigma; and c) not nearly as many people saw it as saw GLADIATOR. It would be refreshing to see a film that broke the mold win Best Picture but that is usually not the case. Hence, I'll bet that GLADIATOR will win the statue, but I won't be surprised (but I will be pleased) if CROUCHING TIGER takes it instead.

Those are my predictions for Oscar 2001. Click here to see how I did!

For more information, please visit http://www.oscars.org.